Here are my top 10 tech predictions for 2011:
- The new version of the iPad will become available for multiple carriers with 3G and 4G data plans. iPad 2 will sell more than 45 million copies in 2011 and take at least 65% of the tablet market. All the others that will deploy tablets in 2011 will fight for the remaining market share. This market will increase Apple’s market value to near #1 in the US and the World. It will also elevate Apple’s computer sales (defining the iPad as a computer) to #3 worldwide.
- The Windows 7 mobile platform will take market share away from Android but will fail to do any better than third behind iPhone and Android. The new Palm OS will lag and its tablet platform will ultimately fail. Verizon iPhones will increase Apple smartphone activations ahead of Android.
- The cloud will gain a major foothold when Apple re-introduces its MobleMe platform into a partly free, partly pay comprehensive cloud application. Included will be streaming music and music purchase storage on MobleMe.
- Google will continue application deployment in the cloud and include this service in Android. Google will start promoting the personal cloud (calling it”gCloud”).
- FaceTime and Skype will battle it out for the premier real-time video chat application. FaceTime will win because Apple will introduce more compelling features and Skype will continue to be plagued by service outages.
- Canon and Nikon will both come out with “mirror-less” digital cameras. These offerings will blow the competition away. Only Sony will be left with any significant market share.
- Microsoft Kinect will continue to sell very well but Microsoft will fail to adapt the technology to other areas of technology.
- Flash will begin a slow death spiral and more as more web sites and game developers use HTML 5.
- Apple will not only adopt iOS features for the next generation of MacOS but will introduce touch style controls to the iMac. Introduction of Windows 8 will be delayed a year and Microsoft will not produce a unified OS (desktop, laptop, mobile).
- Netbooks will all but vanish from the consumer market to be replaced by tablets and slim laptops (e.g. MacBook Pro Air)